STRUCTURAL DIFFERENTIATION OF THE GLOBAL INNOVATION SPACE: DYNAMICS AND COUNTRY TYPOLOGY
Abstract
The article examines the theoretical bases and empirical manifestations of global innovation development asymmetries in the context of the transition to the sixth technological paradigm, in which artificial intelligence, quantum computing, biotechnology, and green energy are altering the competitive landscape between nations. The persistent uneven distribution of innovative capacity across countries is not a temporary fluctuation but reflects structural asymmetries that reproduce and deepen due to the cumulative nature of knowledge accumulation and institutional path dependency. By combining well-known ideas about how countries organize innovation alongside economic growth theories, the author suggests a new three-part model. This model includes: (1) a technology part, focusing on how new ideas help the economy; (2) an institution part, showing how organizations and people work together to share knowledge; (3) a part showing how government, universities, and businesses could work in sync to push forward common innovation goals. The paper also discusses two main ways countries approach new technology: some support global sharing of ideas, while others focus on protecting their own technologies. Evidence from top countries shows they use both: being open in basic science but careful with important technologies. The empirical section presents panel regression results for 149 countries over 2011–2022 (1533 observations, with GII as the dependent variable). Four FE model specifications are estimated. Key outcomes confirm the diminishing returns effect of income on innovation performance, with intellectual property receipts, researcher density, and openness to external knowledge emerging as the most robust positive predictors of GII. Heterogeneity analysis shows a structural divide in the determinants of innovation across country groups: knowledge commercialization capacity proves decisive for developing economies, while R&D investment intensity dominates for advanced ones. Lagged specifications confirm that research investments yield delayed effects on innovation outcomes. Sigma-convergence analysis shows persistent structural divergence that intensified sharply after 2019, confirming the hierarchical rather than gradual character of global innovation asymmetries.
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