MODEL OF EFFECTIVE EMPLOYMENT OF UKRAINIANS IN THE CONDITIONS OF LABOR MIGRATION AND EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
Abstract
The article develops an econometric model of effective employment of Ukrainians under conditions of labour migration and European integration. The study is based on the hypothesis that the integration of highly skilled Ukrainian migrants into the labour markets of EU reminded countries depends primarily on macroeconomic determinants that reflect both the level of economic development and labour market conditions. The empirical database was formed using Eurostat statistics for 2022–2024 for Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic, which are the main recipient countries of Ukrainian labour migration. The dependent variable is the employment rate of highly educated Ukrainian migrants, while GDP per capita, net annual income, job vacancy rate and unemployment rate were selected as explanatory variables. The methodological framework is based on panel data modelling using pooled OLS, which is appropriate given the limited number of countries and time periods. The results demonstrate a high explanatory power of the model and confirm the statistical significance of all included regressors. It is empirically proven that GDP per capita growth and higher labour incomes create favourable conditions for the realisation of migrants’ human capital. The job vacancy rate has the strongest positive impact, reflecting labour demand and the speed of labour market integration. At the same time, the unemployment rate shows a statistically significant negative effect, indicating the sensitivity of migrant employment to cyclical fluctuations in the host economies. The obtained results confirm the key role of economic growth, income level and labour demand in ensuring effective employment of highly skilled Ukrainian migrants and demonstrate the consistency of the proposed model with modern labour market theory. The developed approach can be used for forecasting migration and employment processes in the context of post-war economic transformation and further European integration of Ukraine.
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