THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ON SOCIAL SECURITY IN UKRAINE
Abstract
The article uses the author's methodology to study the impact of natural demographic processes on the state and level of social security in Ukraine. The proposed author's methodology implements an ecosystem approach to understanding the processes of human capital development and the achievement of sustainable development goals. In such a coordinate system, a person acts as a source of change and at the same time experiences influences that carry risks and dangers. A mathematical model was constructed to assess various groups of factors affecting the country's social security and to compare the dynamics of such security and demographic processes, which allowed us to conclude that such a connection exists, but it manifests itself with a certain lag (it is proposed to choose a lag of 23 years). Otherwise, the correlation between the state of social security in the country and the current state of natural growth is not confirmed, which indicates the importance of the quality of life of the population during their time as part of the workforce. The main factors determining the state of social security are as follows: demographic, technological (innovative); social protection system; labor market and human capital development; environmental and economic. It has been established that, according to the key sustainable development goals describing the quality of life of the Ukrainian population, social security has been gradually deteriorating since 2014. In the pre-war period, the country was characterized by the preservation of human capital through educational policy and the implementation of health care and social protection programs, which together had a positive impact on the security situation. There was no close correlation between the state of the economy and natural population growth in Ukraine from 1991 to 2020, but it has been proven that the birth rate depends on the material well-being of families. The correlation between mortality and GDP per capita is significant only when taking into account the bifurcation point – the start of the ATO. For the labor market (in a closed system), depopulation poses significant risks. Considering social security as an ecosystem of a country's socio-economic development, it can be concluded that demographic changes, in particular natural population movement, are not the only dominant factor in social and economic transformations.
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