FORECAST OF TRANSACTION FLOWS AND MARKET INDICATORS OF UKRAINE’S GAMBLING INDUSTRY (2025–2027)

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive forecast of transaction flows and market indicators of Ukraine’s gambling industry for the period 2025–2027. Building on historical data, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic trends, the research models potential scenarios of market dynamics under varying conditions of consumer demand, fiscal policy, and technological adaptation. Particular attention is paid to the operational burden on payment infrastructures, the implications of average transaction value fluctuations, and the structural risks associated with regulatory reforms and offshore competition. The findings indicate that transaction volumes may continue to contract moderately in the short term, with recovery prospects largely dependent on population purchasing power, industry adaptation to revised taxation frameworks, and the effectiveness of state-level monitoring systems. The article contributes to the academic and practical discourse by offering quantitative projections, identifying unresolved regulatory challenges, and outlining strategic recommendations for operators and policymakers. The article identifies strategic implications for the state and business, including: the need to form a flexible tax policy aimed at balancing budget revenues and stimulating the legal market segment; adaptation of operators to changing consumer patterns; and the threat of increased competition from offshore platforms, which may reduce legal turnover and tax revenues.