IMPROVEMENT OF THE METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO ASSESSING ECONOMIC RISK AND FORMING STRATEGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL ENTERPRISES (USING THE EXAMPLE OF THE PRC)
Abstract
The article examines the problems of assessing economic risk and forming development strategies for small enterprises in an unstable economic environment, using the People’s Republic of China as a case study. The purpose of the article is to improve the methodological approach to economic risk assessment and to substantiate risk management strategies based on quantitative analytical models. The author’s contribution consists in integrating the integral risk index with economic and mathematical tools of strategic management, which makes it possible to transform analytical results into practical managerial decisions. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the comprehensive combination of strategic efficiency assessment, optimization of a strategy portfolio, scenario forecasting, and strategic sustainability analysis within a single methodological framework. This approach allows not only comparing alternative development strategies in terms of profitability and risk but also forming a balanced portfolio that ensures adaptability and long-term sustainability of small enterprises under changing economic conditions. The practical significance of the obtained results is determined by the possibility of their application in improving the risk management system of small enterprises, optimizing the allocation of limited resources, and increasing financial resilience. The research results demonstrate that innovation-oriented strategies provide the highest level of efficiency in stable economic conditions, while liquidity and diversification strategies play a stabilizing role in crisis scenarios. Export-oriented strategies are shown to be effective under conditions of restricted access to credit resources. The study concludes that effective development of small enterprises in a high-risk environment requires a flexible and adaptive risk management system that takes into account the multifactor nature of economic risk and integrates quantitative assessment with strategic decision-making.
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