MIGRATION PROCESSES BETWEEN UKRAINE AND POLAND: DYNAMICS, STRUCTURE, AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

Abstract

The article examines the migration processes between Ukraine and Poland during 2020-2025, with a special focus on the period following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The study analyzes the scale, dynamics, and structure of the forced migration of Ukrainians to Poland and evaluates the socio-economic implications of this migration for both countries, particularly for Ukraine’s economy. Special attention is paid to migrant workers’ remittances as one of the key factors influencing Ukraine’s economic resilience during the war. The research methodology combines analysis of official statistics on migration (including data on border crossings, refugee registrations under temporary protection, and residence permits) with examination of financial data on remittance inflows from the National Bank of Ukraine. A comparative approach is employed to contrast remittance flows from Poland with those from other destination countries, highlighting Poland’s role as a source of migrant transfers. The findings indicate that Poland emerged as the primary host country for Ukrainian migrants. The influx of Ukrainian citizens into Poland helped alleviate labor shortages in the Polish economy but also introduced challenges related to social integration and support. At the same time, these migrants have maintained strong financial links with Ukraine. Remittances from Ukrainians in Poland accounted for over one-third of all officially recorded migrant remittances to Ukraine in 2023-2024. This underscores Poland’s position as the largest single source of remittances to Ukraine. Such transfers have become an important source of foreign currency for Ukraine, reaching levels equivalent to approximately 2% of Ukraine’s GDP in certain years. The inflow of migrant funds has helped support the national currency and sustain household incomes during the war. Moreover, a comparative analysis reveals that the average remittance per Ukrainian migrant is higher in Poland than in most other countries (e.g., Germany or Italy), reflecting Poland’s more accessible labor market and the higher employment rate among Ukrainian refugees. Overall, the study concludes that the labor migration of Ukrainians to Poland has had a net positive economic effect on Ukraine’s development, offsetting some war-induced economic losses through increased consumption and investment fueled by remittances. Concurrently, Ukrainian migrants have contributed to Poland’s economy by filling workforce gaps and stimulating domestic demand through their expenditures. The mutual benefits of this migration highlight the importance of coordinated migration and economic policies. In sum, the research emphasizes that migration-driven financial flows are a vital component of Ukraine’s economic resilience in the face of conflict, and it calls for continued monitoring of these processes to inform policy decisions in both Ukraine and Poland.