THE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS DEVELOPMENT WITHIN ACCOUNTING SUPPORT OF ENTERPRISE ECONOMIC SECURITY MANAGEMENT
Abstract
A prerequisite for running a successful business today is ensuring its economic security and designing a proper management system based on data and experience. Overcoming the retrospective nature of accounting information and aligning it with economic security objectives requires new tools, like predictive analytics, to adapt accounting practices for comprehensive threat management. The article aims to develop the theoretical and methodological foundations for organizing information and analytical support for managing an enterprise's economic security and expanding the functionality of the accounting process. The research hypothesizes that integrating predictive information on an enterprise's business processes into accounting will lead to an increase in economic security. As part of substantiating the research hypothesis, the necessary changes in the accounting process organization have been considered in the context of possible areas of application of predictive analytics to maintain an enterprise's given level of economic security. The methodological basis of the research was formed by the business process modeling language BPMN and probabilistic Bayesian networks implemented in the Netica software package. The involvement of advanced analytical tools in managing an enterprise's economic security has been described with the BPMN usage. Within the framework of the developed top-level business process model, a list of critical regulations for the transfer of accounting information to predictive analysis performers has been determined. Trust networks help ensure the substantiation and implementation of an enterprise's economically secure strategic choice. The results of the probability graph application are integrated into the enterprise's economic security strategic controlling model. Accounting in this model is presented as the basis for the feedback loop operation. Predictive analytics is presented as an element of the Netica model setup, which is included in the management accounting policy. The Bayesian model implemented by Netica software is presented both as a predictive analysis tool and as a tool for consolidating accounting information with information from other systems.
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