FORESIGHT APPROACH TO THE ASSESSMENT OF INVESTMENT RISKS OF HOTEL INDUSTRY ENTERPRISES

Abstract

The article considers the foresight approach to the assessment of investment risks in the hotel industry. The relationship between investment activity and risk has been established. Our own approach to the definition of "risk" is given. The concept of investment risk and project risk is revealed. Types of project risks are investigated. The stages of risk assessment of real investment projects of the enterprise are analyzed. It was found that the assessment of investment risks in the hotel industry involves the calculation of qualitative and quantitative indicators. The main methods of investment risk analysis at the hotel industry are schematically presented. The four main methods that are mostly used in practice are singled out and discussed in detail. The following methods of investment risk analysis are described: project sensitivity analysis, script analysis, simulation method (Monte-Carlo method), tree-decision method. The sequence according to which the sensitivity analysis is performed is systematized. A comparison of sensitivity analysis and script analysis is made and the advantage of script analysis is established, as it involves the simultaneous change of project factors that are tested for risk. Three scripts that are possible during the analysis are identified: pessimistic, optimistic and most probable (realistic). It is established that the pessimistic script is considered under the condition of deterioration of the values of variable parameters relative to the realistic one. It is substantiated that the script analysis allows to take more fully into account the risks of the investment project, as it takes into account the probability of events. It was found that the method of simulation modeling (Monte-Carlo method) allows you to most fully take into account the full range of uncertainties of the initial values of the project parameters that may arise during its implementation. It is shown that the Monte-Carlo method requires software support. An example of such a software product is the "Risk Master" package, which is actively used in practice by investment managers. The method of analysis of the "tree-decision method", which is used in cases where the project is implemented in several stages and is accompanied by multiple investments is analyzed.