RISK ASSESSMENT AND RISK ANALYSIS FOR PRODUCTION ACTIVITIES UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF MARITAL STATE

Valeriia Kasianova; Iryna Lomachynska; Natalia Sharai

doi:10.32782/2308-1988/2025-53-14

Valeriia Kasianova Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6302-366X
Iryna Lomachynska Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6112-6884
Natalia Sharai Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University https://orcid.org/0009-0003-4007-651X

DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2308-1988/2025-53-14

Keywords: production activities, uncertainty, risk, risk analysis, risk assessment, classification of risks, enterprise, martial law, military risk, forecast, mathematical formalization, time series, aperiodic fluctuations, risk-based approach, risk management, business sustainability, production process management

Abstract

The article is devoted to the problem of determining the military risks characteristics and the development of mathematical formalization methods to identify at the initial stage signs of an increase in the level of risks. In the research process, the following was applied: a comparative analysis to identify the indirect influence of war risks on other risks; analytical method for identifying features of military risks; methods of mathematical formalization to detect at the initial stage aperiodic fluctuations of time series of risk parameters for timely hazard forecasting. Specific features of military risks are determined. A complex mathematical approach is proposed to identify signs of an increase in the risks level at the initial stage of their formation in order to ensure the flexibility of production activities management, increase the adaptability of the enterprise to threats, and acquire the ability of the enterprise to survive. Mathematical formalization methods are proposed for detecting aperiodic harmonic fluctuations of a time series, as a manifestation of risk, and forecasting production activity in conditions of significant uncertainty of the risks parameters. The proposed mathematical formalization approaches will make it possible to detect signs of an increase in the level of risks at the initial stage of their formation to ensure flexibility in the production activities management.

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