PROJECT RISK MODELING FOR SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS ACTIVITIES OF A COMPANY
Abstract
This study examines the behavior of a company in situations of uncertainty and risk. The economic activity of a company in conditions of uncertainty is accompanied by conditions such as the presence of uncertainty, the need to choose an alternative, and risk assessment of the selected alternatives. Experts’ opinions confirm that a risk situation is a type of uncertain event when the occurrence of an event is probable and can be determined; that is, to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the probability of an event occurring in the company's economic activity. The essence of the concept of risk is revealed as a negative event that is likely to occur in the future and affect a project. The differences between the risks and problems were determined. The probability of the source of risk occurrence, the essence of risk, and its functions were considered. Project risks are potential events or situations that may negatively affect the successful completion of a project, in particular its time, cost, quality, or achievement of goals. Types of project risks are presented based on the location of each risk in the company's management system: technical, organizational, financial, time, risks related to quality, risks from stakeholders, and external risks. Special attention is paid to risk modeling as the process of creating models that allow assessment, analysis, and prediction of possible risks in various areas of the company's activity. It was determined that the success of modern projects lies in the understanding of project managers in managing risks through their modeling. Modeling future risks is one of the tools for implementing a company's sustainable development strategy. The main stages of risk modeling for sustainable business activities are as follows: 1) risk identification, 2) risk assessment, 3) modeling and analysis, 4) risk management for sustainable business activities, and 5) monitoring and correction. It was concluded that the sustainable economic activity (sustainability) of a company means not only financial stability but also the ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, comply with social and environmental standards, and effectively manage risks at all stages of activity.
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