ECONOMETRIC MODELS AS A TOOL FOR THE FORMATION OF EFFECTIVE LOGISTICS IN CROSS-BORDER BUSINESS

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of econometric models as a tool for the formation of effective logistics in cross-border business. The result of scientific research is the conclusion that econometric models are a powerful tool for the formation of efficient logistics in cross-border business, as they allow scientifically sound analysis and forecasting of various aspects that affect the efficiency of logistics processes. The main aspects of the application of econometric models in cross-border business are analyzed. Econometric models allow us to accurately estimate the demand for certain goods or services in different markets, as well as predict changes in supply. This is important for planning transportation, warehousing, and other logistics infrastructure internationally. One of the main tasks in cross-border business is to minimize the cost of transporting goods across borders. Econometric models can help analyze costs, identify the most profitable routes, and optimize the costs of customs procedures, insurance, and other logistics operations. Cross-border business depends on a variety of macroeconomic factors, such as currency fluctuations, changes in international trade agreements, or a country's economic policy. Econometric models allow us to estimate the impact of these factors on logistics operations, which allows businesses to adjust their strategies in a timely manner. Cross-border businesses often face a variety of risks: political, economic, technical, and natural. Econometric models can be used not only to estimate the probability of such events, but also to develop strategies to minimize them. Econometric models, combined with modern information technologies, such as supply chain management (SCM) systems and geographic information systems (GIS), allow for the automation of many logistics processes. This helps to increase the speed of information processing and reduce the human factor, which in turn increases the efficiency of cross-border logistics. Changes in customs tariffs, procedures and legislation can have a significant impact on logistics efficiency. Using econometric models, it is possible to predict probable changes in customs restrictions and prepare businesses to adapt to new conditions. It has been found that in cross-border business, a special role is played by optimizing the routes of delivery of goods between countries. For this purpose, regression models can be used that analyze historical data on transportation time, transportation costs, weather conditions, and customs procedures. Based on this data, a strategy can be developed that minimizes time and costs, which is critical in a competitive environment. It is concluded that econometric models are an important tool for enterprises engaged in cross-border business, as they allow for effective planning, process optimization and risk management. Due to the ability to process large amounts of data and take into account numerous factors, these models help enterprises to adapt.