SCENARIO-BASED STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE ENTERPRISES IN A TURBULENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

Abstract

The article substantiates the feasibility of scenario based strategic planning for trade enterprises operating in a turbulent economic environment. The purpose of the study is to develop an adaptive model for strategic decision making that reflects war related disruptions, inflation, changes in consumer demand, logistics constraints, labour shortages, and accelerating digital transformation in trade. The research is based on the methods of analysis and synthesis, comparison, logical generalisation, scenario modelling, and strategic diagnostics. The paper combines the interpretation of recent academic studies on adaptive strategic management with the analysis of current macroeconomic and sectoral signals relevant for Ukrainian trade enterprises. The proposed approach includes the identification of key external drivers, assessment of internal capabilities, construction of alternative scenarios, selection of strategic responses for each scenario, and creation of a monitoring system based on early warning indicators. The study shows that the environment of trade enterprises is shaped by a combination of security risks, damaged infrastructure, declining purchasing power, volatile prices, financing constraints, supply chain restructuring, and the rapid spread of digital channels. In response to these factors, four baseline scenarios are developed: inertial, turbulent, wartime, and innovative breakthrough. For each scenario, the article specifies strategic priorities in the fields of assortment policy, pricing, logistics, finance, personnel, digital channels, partnerships, and investment behaviour. The inertial scenario requires efficiency and selective growth, the turbulent scenario requires flexibility and diversification, the wartime scenario requires survival and preservation of critical assets, while the innovative breakthrough scenario requires rapid expansion, technological modernisation, and proactive market capture. The scientific novelty lies in adapting scenario planning to the specific conditions of Ukrainian trade enterprises and in combining the scenario portfolio with a system of early indicators that allows managers to switch between strategic trajectories in a timely manner. Unlike general works on strategic planning, the paper explicitly incorporates a wartime scenario and links each scenario to practical management actions. The proposed model can be used by managers and owners of trade enterprises while revising strategic plans, budgets, assortment decisions, procurement policies, investment programmes, and anti crisis measures. The approach increases preparedness for shocks, reduces strategic inertia, supports faster reaction to environmental changes, and improves the quality of managerial coordination during uncertainty. Scenario planning should be treated not as a one time forecast but as a continuous strategic process. Its implementation enables trade enterprises to maintain resilience under adverse conditions and to use recovery opportunities more effectively when the external environment improves.