METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO RISK ANALYSIS OF EXPORT LOGISTICS CHAINS

Abstract

The main stages of risk management, including assessment, analysis, planning, and monitoring examines in paper. Particular attention is paid to the comparative analysis of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods. Qualitative methods include methods of specification, analogy, cause-and-effect analysis, and the “event-consequence” method. Among the quantitative methods, sensitivity analysis, decision tree, stochastic modeling, scenario analysis, and index risk assessment methods are considered. It was found that most existing approaches have significant limitations: qualitative methods often suffer from subjectivity, and quantitative methods require a significant amount of reliable statistical data, which is often lacking in wartime conditions. The article substantiates the need to transition from the isolated application of individual methods to a comprehensive approach to risk analysis of export logistics chains. An integrated methodological model is proposed that combines qualitative and quantitative tools at different stages of risk management. An algorithm for a comprehensive risk analysis of agricultural export logistics chains in conditions of instability and increased uncertainty of the external environment has been developed, which includes such steps as formulating the goal and objectives of risk research, identifying instability factors, analyzing the structure of logistics chains, identifying and classifying risks, quantitative risk assessment, analyzing the sensitivity of the logistics system to external environmental factors, modeling logistics scenarios, assessing the adaptability and stability of logistics chains, developing mechanisms for minimizing and hedging risks, interpreting results and forming recommendations for making management decisions. This approach allows taking into account both the probability of risk occurrence and its potential impact on key indicators of the efficiency of the logistics chain. Of particular importance is the adaptation of the proposed methodological approaches to the conditions of martial law and post-war reconstruction, when traditional logistics routes are significantly transformed and risks acquire a hybrid nature. The results of the study can be used to improve the risk management system exporters of agricultural products, develop strategies for the logistical sustainability of agricultural sector enterprises.